Minds

Dynamic range of Bayesian thought

We naturally use something close to Bayesian logic when we learn and intuit. Bayesian logic doesn’t update when the prior is 0 or 1. Some people can’t shift their opinions, no matter what evidence they have. This is compatible with them having priors of 0 or 1.

It would be implausible for humans to store neural weights with ℝeal numbers. How many bits (base-2) do we use to store our implicit priors? My gut feeling says it’s a shockingly small number, perhaps 4.

How little evidence do we need to become trapped in certainty? Is it even constant (or close to) for all humans?

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