AI, Futurology, Opinion, Philosophy

Memetic monocultures

Brief kernel of an idea:

  1. Societies deem certain ideas “dangerous”.
  2. If it possible to technologically eliminate perceived dangers, we can be tempted to do so, even when we perceived wrongly.
  3. Group-think has lead to catastrophic misjudgments.
  4. This represents a potential future “great filter” for the Fermi paradox. It does not apply to previous attempts at eliminating dissenting views, as they were social, not technological, in nature, and limited in geographical scope.
  5. This risk has not yet become practical, but we shouldn’t feel complacent just because brain-computer-interfaces are basic and indoctrinal viruses are fictional, as universal surveillance is sufficient and affordable, limited only by sufficiently advanced AI to assist human overseers (perfect AI not required).
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AI, Futurology

Pocket brains

  • Total iPhone sales between Q4 2017 and Q4 2018: 217.52 million
  • Performance of Neural Engine, component of Apple A11 SoC used in iPhone 8, 8 Plus, and X: 600 billion operations per second
  • Estimated computational power required to simulate a human brain in real time: 36.8×1015
  • Total compute power of all iPhones sold between Q4 2017 and Q4 2018, assuming 50% were A11’s (I’m not looking for more detailed stats right now): 6525.6×1015
  • Number of simultaneous, real-time, simulations of complete human brains that can be supported by 2017-18 sales of iPhones: 177

 

  • Performance of “Next-generation Neural Engine” in Apple A12 SoC used in Phone XR, XS, XS Max: 5 trillion operations per second
  • Assuming next year’s sales are unchanged (and given that all current models use this chip and I therefore shouldn’t discount by 50% the way I did previously) number of simultaneous, real-time, simulations of complete human brains that can be supported by 2018-19 sales of iPhones: 1.30512×1021/36.8×1015 = 35,465

 

  • Speedup required before one iPhone’s Neural Engine is sufficient to simulate a human brain in real time: 36.8×1015/5×1012 = 7,360
  • When this will happen, assuming Moore’s Law continues: log2(7360)×1.5 = 19.268… years = January, 2038
  • Reason to not expect this: A12 feature size is 7nm, silicon diameter is ~0.234nm, size may only reduce by a linear factor of about 30 or an areal factor of about 900 before features are atomic. (Oh no, you’ll have to buy a whole eight iPhones to equal your whole brain).

 

  • Purchase cost of existing hardware to simulate one human brain: <7,360×$749 → <$5,512,640
  • Power requirements of simulating one human brain in real time using existing hardware, assuming the vague estimates of ~5W TDP for an A12 SoC are correct: 7,360×~5W → ~36.8kW
  • Annual electricity bill from simulating one human brain in real time: 36.8kW * 1 year * $0.1/kWh = 32,200 US dollars
  • Reasons to be cautious about previous number: it ignores the cost of hardware failure, and I don’t know the MTBF of an A12 SoC so I can’t even calculate that
  • Fermi estimate of MTBF of Apple SoC: between myself, my coworkers, my friends, and my family, I have experience of at least 10 devices, and none have failed before being upgraded over a year later, so assume hardware replacement <10%/year → <$551,264/year
  • Assuming hardware replacement currently costs $551,264/year, and that Moore’s law continues, then expected date that the annual replacement cost of hardware required to simulate a human brain in real time becomes equal to median personal US annual income in 2016 ($31,099): log2($551,264/$31,099) = 6.22… years = late December, 2024
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